Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber made history during the 2023 season when he combined an outstanding 47 home runs with a discouraging .197 batting average. Previously, no hitter had ever managed to reach 40 home runs without hitting at least .200. Noted three-true-outcomes hero Joey Gallo certainly came close in 2021 (38 HR, .199 in 2021), as did Adam Dunn in 2012 (41 HR, .204). Eugenio Suarez, Dave Kingman, Mark Reynolds and even Mark McGwire are others who flashed big power and, on occasion, low batting averages.
Murakami sure acts statistically like Schwarber. This isn’t such a bad thing, you know. Schwarber has made exciting strides in his game since 2023, crushing left-handed pitching last season and hitting .248. He has walked more than 100 times in three consecutive seasons, while averaging more than 200 strikeouts in that span. This is what Schwarber is, and it made him a top-25 selection in ESPN ADP. Even in 2023, he was a valuable player.
Murakami enters play today having homered in five consecutive games, raising his batting average from .167 to .256. Yeah, it is early and batting average will fluctuate, but there is little question about what Murakami is at the plate, as he came as advertised and is proving the point. He is the AL’s version of Schwarber, with immense power along with excellent exit velocity and hard-hit rates, and he is among the leaders in walks and strikeouts. It’s rare to see a hitter with a walk rate higher than 21% and striking out at a 33% rate. Even Schwarber has never been so extreme in those areas.
Fantasy managers in points formats should love this, as Murakami, who went outside the top 100 hitters in ESPN ADP, is among the top 20 hitters in fantasy points so far. We can make the case Murakami may be at the apex of his fantasy value, as his is a rough contact rate (even worse than 2023 Schwarber), he isn’t doing much damage against fastballs, and his home runs have not exactly come versus Cy Young-caliber pitching. Perhaps 50 home runs are a bit bold, but Murakami sure isn’t hitting many singles. He has 11 of those, just one more than his 10 home runs. Schwarber hit 48 singles the year he hit 47 home runs. All this can happen again, homers and low batting average, perhaps even more extreme.
Don’t be surprised … if Philadelphia Phillies LHP Jesus Luzardo is a top 20 fantasy hurler yet again
Luzardo will enter his sixth outing of the season, scheduled for next Tuesday against the San Francisco Giants, with a bloated 6.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP — and, not surprisingly, rostered in fewer leagues than he was a week ago. Fantasy managers are nothing if not overreactive. The Phillies are off to a brutal start for myriad reasons. but one of them is that they have been historically unlucky when it comes to BABIP, both on offense and on defense. These figures should normalize, with the higher skilled players improving.
Last season, Luzardo finished with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 216 strikeouts (fifth in MLB), while winning 15 games. He overcame a brutal two-start stretch in May/June when he permitted 20 earned runs over 5 2/3 innings to the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays. Remove those outings and Luzardo had a 3.03 ERA. He pitched well most of the season. It doesn’t look like he is pitching well today — because he isn’t. However, his 6.91 ERA comes with a .395 BABIP, third highest among qualified pitchers. Luzardo’s xERA is 3.61, his FIP is a cool 3.25. Patience, grasshoppers.
Even with several outfield upgrades, the Phillies remain one of the worst defensive teams in the sport (and have been for years), but a .353 team BABIP remains ridiculously high. It will normalize some. Houston is next at .325, but their pitching really has been terrible. The Phillies have a 3.52 xERA and 3.62 FIP to go with their 4.99 ERA. That combination cannot continue. LHP Cristopher Sanchez (.413 BABIP!) has overcome this issue so far, but Luzardo and RHP Aaron Nola have not.
Always watch for the missing of bats. Luzardo is missing so many bats. He’s been inefficient and a bit wild, already with more wild pitches than all of 2025, but a 54% LOB rate is also — surprise! — the unluckiest in the sport. Go get Luzardo (and Garrett Crochet, Kyle Bradish, Nathan Eovaldi and Logan Webb, among others, too) while you can.
Don’t be surprised … if the Los Angeles Dodgers boast two of the top 10 fantasy catchers
Dodgers C Will Smith seems a tad underappreciated in fantasy, as the three-time NL All-Star delivered another solid campaign in 2025, hitting a career-best .296 and offering the power numbers we have come to expect, though they were a bit down because a late-season IL stint lowered his overall volume. Still, while nine catchers scored more fantasy points in 2025, none offer the consistency we have seen for six seasons. Smith went fifth among catchers in ESPN ADP, which is fair. I have him in multiple leagues, after fading the top catchers and adding Smith in the middle rounds.
Smith is producing fine so far, but colleague Dalton Rushing entered Wednesday with more fantasy points. Both catchers are among the top 10 scorers at the position. Can Rushing stay there? Perhaps not, as the second-year player is unlikely to continue his current power pace, with seven home runs in nine games and 31 PA, a ridiculous .793 isolated power mark.
Then again, these are the Dodgers. They score a ton of runs and get to face the Rockies a lot. This can mitigate volume worries. Rushing can fill in at first base as well as the outfield, and we have already seen the amazing Shohei Ohtani take a day off from hitting. Perhaps there will be more days off as the best team in the league preps for October.
Fantasy managers have made Rushing the most-added catcher in fantasy. While it should be Detroit Tigers starter Dillon Dingler, who plays considerably more and boasts a solid .874 OPS (and legitimate .264 ISO), this isn’t a bad investment, yet. Some are starting to drop Kansas City Royals starter Salvador Perez (hitting .180), Houston Astros starter Yainer Diaz (.197) and Miami Marlins runner Agustin Ramirez (.212, with only one stolen base). I would call dropping any of them premature.
Still, what if Rushing hits 20 home runs over 250 PA? Could he find his way into the final top 10 at catcher? It would be nice if he walked a bit more often (one so far), but he has cut his K rate. Let’s be optimistic. Rushing’s fly ball rate is 65%, so it is clear what his strategy is. Why not try for home runs in every at-bat, especially when at-bats are infrequent? Rushing may not have the volume of most starting catchers, but this is the Dodgers, so anything seems possible.
