The first half of the Elite Eight is set with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets Thursday. Who could join them in the regional finals of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
ESPN reporters on-site in Chicago and Washington, D.C. tracking Friday’s Sweet 16 action in real-time.
Jump to: Game previews, predictions
SWEET 16 LIVE TRACKER
SWEET 16 PREVIEWS
All times Eastern.
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines during the NCAA tournament, but coaching matchups are equally — if not more — impactful. During a tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo has developed an uncanny ability to zero in on an opposing team’s top players and create problems for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight.
Izzo’s primary mission against UConn is to limit Tarris Reed Jr.’s impact on the game. The Huskies are a different team when he’s a dominant presence in the post. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of second-chance opportunities, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on second-chance opportunities with a No. 10 national ranking in offensive rebounding rate. It will be key for them to hit more 3s, extend UConn’s defense and create more paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr. & Co. They have to give UConn a reason to guard on the perimeter — if the Spartans just allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and grab rebounds, Michigan State could lose.
Izzo has been in this position before — against better teams — and won. His experience will matter in a matchup against Dan Hurley.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn will have to show up as the top-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to just a 39% clip inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they can be a great defensive team when they want to be. In the Big Ten tournament, UCLA had produced 132 points per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the round of 32, the Bruins — who played without leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored only 57 points, their second-lowest total of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had nine assists but also finished 2-for-9 shooting with a pair of turnovers. That’s the same attention UConn will need to give Fears. When he’s comfortable, Michigan State’s offense soars. The Huskies can’t let that happen.
On offense, Braylon Mullins could be an X factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA but not the historic numbers he put up against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring two points combined. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside attack, Michigan State will have to find a way to disrupt that, which could give Mullins — who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA tournament games — more freedom and opportunities to make plays and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.
The Huskies have a multitude of options to score, and as long as most of them are effective, they can get back to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf
10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State 74-68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee will have to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That task begins with Felix Okpara, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers and altered other shots, including a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked during Virginia’s comeback attempt. Opposing players had made only 30% of their shots around the rim against Okpara entering Sunday’s game, per Synergy Sports data. He’ll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) — but he won’t have to do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to handle every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every spot. They will have to put pressure on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he plays, to win. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament would be the formula for a Tennessee trip to the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: Move the ball to find the best shot on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on fast breaks. Although they didn’t have Jefferson, who is a game-time decision because of an ankle injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing through Lipsey — who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and only three turnovers against Kentucky — the Cyclones registered 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63% of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or better.
Gillespie and Ament combined for five turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can pressure that duo into the same mistakes Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) made for Kentucky, even if Jefferson sits out another game. That’s how the Cyclones can advance. — Medcalf
