It has been less than two weeks since the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament field was set — and it’s already down to the Elite Eight.
ESPN’s college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their predictions for Saturday’s Illinois-Iowa and Arizona-Purdue matchups. They also break down the keys to each team advancing to the Final Four.
6:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Illinois, 72-66
Medcalf’s prediction: Illinois, 77-70
How Illinois can advance to the Final Four: If Illinois can continue its recent defensive form, it should beat Iowa and have a real chance at winning a national championship. The Illini held VCU and Houston to 55 points apiece in their past two games, and have now held five of their past 10 opponents to fewer than one point per possession. The physicality of Kylan Boswell at the point of attack combined with their size and length on the wings, and their rim protection, means they have enough to at least attempt to take Bennett Stirtz out of his game. Stirtz had only 12 points on 17 shots in the first meeting between the two Big Ten teams.
Offensively, Illinois will have the edge on the offensive glass — the Illini rank in the top five nationally in second-chance points per game. Iowa also ranked last in the conference in defensive free throw rate. Another key could be whether Illinois has success getting to the foul line.
How Iowa can advance to the Final Four: Iowa’s biggest strength in the NCAA tournament has been its ability to control the tempo. The Hawkeyes’ first-round game against Clemson featured 54 possessions — the slowest game either team played all season. Their second-round win over Florida saw the fewest possessions the Gators have had all season. And their Sweet 16 win over Nebraska was the slowest game the Cornhuskers have played all season. Can Iowa do the same to Illinois? The first meeting between the two Big Ten teams was closer to the Illini’s preferred pace, although the Hawkeyes falling behind early and not being built for comebacks was the bigger factor.
Two more keys for Iowa: Stirtz has to win the point guard battle against Boswell and Keaton Wagler, and the Hawkeyes have to keep Illinois — the Big Ten’s best offensive rebounding team — from dominating second-chance opportunities. — Borzello
8:49 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 81-74
Medcalf’s prediction: Arizona, 85-82
How Arizona can advance to the Final Four: Though Purdue has more interest in playing defense than Arkansas, Arizona will still have an advantageous matchup against the Boilermakers at that end of the court. Purdue gave up nearly 1.27 points per possession to Texas in the Sweet 16, and the Boilermakers have given up at least 1.05 points per possession in 10 of their past 11 games. They were only 14th in the Big Ten in 2-point defense. In other words, Arizona just needs to stick to its identity and look to attack the paint at every opportunity.
Brayden Burries or Jaden Bradley should be able to get into the lane off the dribble consistently, and Motiejus Krivas, Tobe Awaka and Koa Peat should have chances in the post. Arizona doesn’t shoot many 3s, but it’s worth noting that Purdue was one of the worst 3-point defenses in the Big Ten, so the Wildcats could get a couple of extra open shots.
Defensively, it’s about Bradley and Burries not letting Braden Smith operate with freedom in the half court. They’re both physical enough to make life difficult for him.
How Purdue can advance to the Final Four: The focal point of their game plan has to be keeping Arizona from completely dominating the paint at both ends of the court. The Wildcats are dominant on the offensive glass, around the rim and get to the free throw line at an incredibly high rate. Purdue, which had the second-best defensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten, will have to hold its own on the backboards while staying out of foul trouble. Daniel Jacobsen’s struggles down the stretch of the season have put much more urgency on Oscar Cluff to stay on the court. If he is forced to sit for long stretches, that won’t bode well for the Boilermakers.
Offensively, Fletcher Loyer will be the key. Purdue has to get hot from 3 to keep up with Arizona’s 2-point efficiency, and Loyer has made four 3s in each of the Boilermakers’ three NCAA tournament games. — Borzello
