Kentucky Derby 152 Offers Big Payout Potential To Horseplayers

Recent times tell us the Kentucky Derby might just be the greatest betting race known to mankind. Payouts over the past five years have been quite handsome as the average $2 win wager on the Derby champ has yielded $55.88. The exotic investments have also yielded quite well as the $2 exacta average has returned $1048.36, the 50-cent trifecta $1889.60 and the $1 superfecta $66,191.30. Yes, those numbers have been inflated by the 2022 winner Rich Strike at a shocking 80 to 1, but the betting pools are always quite large and the twenty-horse field spreads the money which equals good value on many of the entrants. The 152^nd running should produce more of the same as there is no dominant runner in this field. Littered with talent throughout, the 2026 edition defines WIDE open. The Run for the Roses carries a $5 million purse and a ticket to immortality. Let’s take a look at the entrants and provide a thought on each. The runners will be listed by post position with trainer, jockey and morning line. Scheduled for May 2, the Derby is carded as race 12 with an expected post time of 6:57 pm eastern.

1 Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr. 4-1)

Arkansas Derby win was super impressive and has landed this son of Into Mischief as the morning line favorite. Sam Davis Stakes win in February saw him close and get up just in time. Rail draw is not always good but may not be a huge factor considering his running style. A nice colt but we look elsewhere.

2 Albus (Riley Mott, Manny Franco 30-1)

Two for two this year and closed nicely to win the Wood Memorial in his last start. Inside post position may be a challenge for this son of Yaupon. Doesn’t make our list of prime-time players.

3 Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Hector Berrios 50-1)

Won the American Pharoah Stakes at two but is winless at three. Finished second in Robert Lewis Stakes and was fourth in Santa Anita Derby but turned in a bullet work at Churchill on April 26. Looked freakishly good but likely not a factor in this one.

4 Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia 50-1)

Broke poorly in Arkansas Derby and finished seventh. Was third in Rebel Stakes in only other start at three. Six of seven career starts have been in graded Stakes company. Those odds on a Bob Baffert horse looks very enticing.

5 Right to Party (Kenny McPeek, Chris Elliot 30-1)

Four career starts all at Aqueduct with last two being a third in the Gotham Stakes and a second in the Wood Memorial. Displayed a nice closing kick in the Wood and closed from seventh to second in the stretch. If this son of Constitution gets it done here his connections will have the Right to Party.

6 Commandment (Brad Cox, Luis Saez 6-1)

Florida Derby champ has won four in a row including one at Churchill as a two-year-old. Son of Into Mischief has been in tough in last two starts and found a way to win. Definitely a player to consider here and two of last three Derby winners came through Florida Derby.

7 Danon Bourbon (Manibu Ikezone, Atsuya Nishimura 20-1)

Unbeaten son of Maxifield crosses the Pacific as a pace stalker. All three wins have come in Japan. Forever Young was a very near miss for the Japanese a couple years ago, but this Bourbon doesn’t appear to be that strong.

8 So Happy (Mark Glatt, Mike Smith,15-1)

Santa Anita Derby champ has big money Mike in the irons and has three wins in four career starts. Has never raced outside California, but this son of Runhappy has worked well. Experienced jock gives him a chance to hit the board.

9 The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano 10-1)

One win in four lifetime starts but has run tough and hit the board in every start. Son of Essential Quality has never raced outside Florida. His name will garner some wagers and the Sunshine State path has produced of late, but we look elsewhere for the winner.

10 Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, Ryusai Sakai 30-1)

Japanese-bred colt has been a world traveler as he has raced in Japan and the Middle East. Punched his ticket to Churchill with a win in the UAE Derby in Dubai. Two wins and two seconds in six career starts but he does not appear to be Godzilla here.

11 Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Jaime Torres 20-1)

Could this son of Bolt d’Oro be the wise guy horse? Won the Virginia Derby in his last start and is two for two lifetime at Churchill. Has tactical speed which is good if he gets the trip. Worth a look at a price.

12 Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado 8-1)

Highly regarded son of Constitution won his first career start in January and then finished second in the Fountain of Youth and third in the Florida Derby. Trainer won it last year and is great at what he does, but we are not backing this Chief.

13 Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Cristian Torres 20-1)

Southwest Stakes winner has two wins and four seconds in six career starts. Has displayed a big kick down the lane and this son of Tacitus gets our nod as the longshot winner of the Kentucky Derby. Taking a swing, but stranger things have happened on the first Saturday in May.

14 Potente (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez 20-1)

Impressive looking son of Into Mischief has two wins and a second in three lifetime starts. The runner-up finish was last out in Santa Anita Derby. Put in a monster work after arriving at Churchill. If you get that price on this horse it is a must play. Never discount Big Race Bob.

15 Emerging Market (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat 15-1)

Unbeaten in two career starts, this son of Candy Ride won the Louisiana Derby after a stretch duel at Fair Grounds. Top notch rider, but the lack of experience in a race like this might be a factor.

16 Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, Edwin Maldonado 30-1)

Hard-running California-bred has ten career starts which is most in the field. He wants to be out front and has the jock to get there. Has displayed plenty of fight in winning the Sunland Derby and finishing second in Louisiana Derby. A longshot that is worth an across the board play.

17 Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, Brian Hernandez Jr. 50-1)

Dubai-based runner that has three wins, a second, and a third in five lifetime starts. Has never raced outside Dubai and was second in UAE Derby. Should be a part of the early pace, but we don’t think he has enough gears.

18 Further Ado (Brad Cox, John Velazquez 6-1)

Lights out winner of the Blue Grass Stakes in his last start. Son of Gun Runner has a win at Churchill and is the most likely winner here. A horse to use in all your multi-race and exotic wagers.

19 Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz 30-1)

Deep closer won the LeComte Stakes in January and then finished third in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. Outside post is not a factor and does get a great jockey. Might be one that could up the pieces late and finish in top four.

20 Fulleffort (Brad Cox, Tyler Gafflione 20-1)

Jeff Ruby Steaks winner has never raced on dirt but has trained extremely well over the Churchill surface of late. Rider is a track specialist and his kick down the lane is impressive. A price to play in your superfecta.