“UK airlines are currently not seeing disruption to jet fuel supply,” says Airlines UK – representing all the main carriers operating in the UK. The trade association says this is “in part due to the UK’s diverse fuel supply”. The industry is continuing “to engage with fuel suppliers and government to monitor the situation”. Don’t panic, in other words.
Yet there seems to be blockade after blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and a significant proportion of the world’s aviation fuel is held up on the wrong side of the coveted channel in the Gulf.
It’s exactly a month since I talked to the bosses of the top budget airlines about the prospect of supplies running out.
Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, told me: “Jet fuel is pretty secure for the next three or four months, as long as the war ends reasonably quickly: March, April, May timeframe. We don’t think there’s any risk of disruption to jet fuel.”
His counterpart at easyJet, Kenton Jarvis, was more cautious: “On supply, we are dependent on a limited number of refineries globally – particularly in the Gulf. The Kuwaiti refinery is very important for the UK, which imports 80–90 per cent of its jet fuel.
“If the crisis continues for months, there could be supply impacts. But right now, we’re in constant contact with airports and fuel suppliers and have no immediate issues – not next week, nor the week after. Beyond that, no one can guarantee anything.”
So this is my latest update on the chances that your holiday flight could be grounded if supplies in the UK or elsewhere start to run out.
Are there cancellations already due to lack of fuel?
No, but there are cancellations due to the high price of fuel and weakening demand for aircraft seats. My flight this weekend from London City airport to Guernsey has been cancelled, and I have been moved to a departure around the same time from Gatwick.
There are similar actions taking place in Scandinavia and the US – basically, routes that were previously marginally profitable can quickly become loss-making when the price of fuel soars.
How soon could it be that we see actual cancellations from fuel running short?
There are isolated parts of the world where cancellations are happening at scale – some of the Asian countries, for example. In Europe, a handful of Italian airports warned that fuel would be unavailable. But these were all smaller airports served only by short-haul aircraft, which can bring in fuel for the return leg.
Given what I was told by the bosses of the airlines, I would estimate that the second week in May is when supplies could start to get really tight. Were this to happen, then airlines could act individually or collectively – or be instructed by government – to cut down on their use of aviation fuel.
How would airlines be able to reduce fuel burn?
As I have previously mentioned, I would expect airlines to organise an orderly reduction in their schedules. Routes on which there are multiple daily departures would be top of the list. In the entirely hypothetical event of airlines choosing, or being ordered, to reduce the amount of fuel used by, say, 20 per cent, British Airways would be in a reasonably strong position. It could fillet some of the thirsty intercontinental departures, particularly to busy US destinations (where its partner, American Airlines, could pick up some of the displaced passengers). Within Europe, smart solutions such as switching Paris, Amsterdam and Brussels passengers to Eurostar trains could also help.
Some aircraft types are thirstier than others, per passenger flown. Airbus A319 planes could be grounded by BA and easyJet, with the much more efficient A321s being used on more routes. Airbus A350s are smaller than A380s, but use less fuel per passenger.
Could airlines be in jeopardy?
As the UK’s and Ireland’s major airlines showed through the Covid pandemic, they are extremely resilient businesses that are regarded as having strong growth potential. It may be that pressure increases on smaller carriers. But bear in mind that a reduction in capacity spells higher fares. For a time at least, airlines could find themselves leaving planes on the ground but still making a decent living.
Read more: How can I ensure I won’t miss my flight due to EES?
